FIRST-TERM PM FACES OMENS OF HISTORY

If Anthony Albanese wants to find positive omens for his re-election bid, he might want to avert his eyes from the history of first-term governments in Australia.
 
The Prime Minister was first elected to Parliament in 1996, so he would be well familiar with the recent record of governments seeking a second term. In short, the track record is less than assuring.
 
All governments that sought a second term within the last 40 years suffered at the ballot box, enduring double-digit seat losses.
 
In March 1983, Bob Hawke’s Labor Party marched into government with 75 of the then 125 seats in the House of Representatives.
 
In December 1984, Hawke sought a second term in a House that had been enlarged to 148 seats. Labor collected an additional seven seats, but the Coalition picked up an extra 16 seats, trimming Hawke’s majority by nine.
 
After 13 years, Labor was swept out in 1996 when John Howard’s Coalition government claimed  94 of the 148 seats in the House of Representatives.
 
That hefty majority was not to last after Howard called an election for October 1998: campaigning to introduce a goods and services tax, the Coalition lost 14 seats on its 1996 result.
 
It subsequently clawed back a number of seats at successive elections before being defeated by Kevin Rudd’s Labor Party at the Federal Election in 2007.
 
Rudd was deposed from the Labor leadership in June 2010, before his successor as PM Julia Gillard lost 11 seats - and majority government – at the subsequent Federal poll in August.
 
Tony Abbott took the Coalition back into government in 2013, winning 90 of the 150 House of Representatives seats at that year’s election.
 
Abbott lost the Liberal leadership to Malcolm Turnbull in September 2015. At the election 10 months later, the first-term Coalition government lost 14 seats, holding office with the slimmest majority.
 
In the current Parliament, Anthony Albanese’s Labor Government holds 78 (77 after the early retirement of Bill Shorten) of 151 seats in the House of Representatives.
 
If his government’s electoral fortunes mirror the recent trend of first-term re-election bids, the PM will be plunged into deep minority territory – provided, of course, that he emerges with more seats than the Coalition (now on 53 seats, after defections and retirements).
 
A loss in double-digit figures would make a Labor government heavily dependent on the support of re-elected crossbenchers, including Independents, Teal independents elected in 2022, or Greens.
 
When she struck a deal to retain minority government in 2010, Julia Gillard needed the support of just three Independents and the Greens.
 
Judging by recent electoral history, Anthony Albanese might have a more complex task on his hands, post-election.
 
Gavin Clancy is a Senior Consultant with Lunik