NARROW COURSE FOR FEDERAL POLL OPTIONS

Sometime in the next four months, Australians will go to the polls to cast their verdict on the Labor Government’s first term.

When that will happen is open to conjecture.

The most straightforward option for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would be to serve a full three-year term, with an election held in mid-May, as in 2022.

Unlike the states and territories, whose four-year terms generally expire on a particular day, the Federal Government generally serves for three years, with the election date to be decided by the incumbent Prime Minister.

The options for an early election, however, are limited for Anthony Albanese.

February has been floated as a potential election date, thus heading off a return to Federal Parliament early next month.

But a February election, at the end of summer, is risky because of the potential incidence of heatwaves, bushfires and electricity supply shortages – none of which would please voters.

More significantly, a February poll would collide with a state election campaign in Western Australia, whose voters are due to go to the polls on March 8.

The West Australian Electoral Act 1907 provides that a state election be held on the second Saturday in March, and can only be moved back to the next Saturday that becomes available.

For campaigning purposes, therefore, February – and March – appear no-go zones for a Federal Election.

Generally, Federal election campaigns run for about five weeks, or 35 days.

Calling an election within days of the WA poll on March 8 would therefore mean the next available day would be Saturday April 12.

April 19 – the following Saturday – is Easter Saturday, while April 26 is the day after the Anzac Day holiday; neither would be viable options.

That leaves a May date as the next possibility for a poll – on the Saturdays of either May 3, 10 or 17.

(An election for both the House of Representatives and the Senate needs to be held by mid-May, to enable newly-elected Senators to take their seats on July 1.)

A May election would mean that the Federal Government would call an election shortly after the Federal Budget due on March 25, as happened with the former Morrison government in 2022.

But if the Government wished to cancel (or more correctly, postpone) Budget Day, it could wait until immediately after the WA election on March 8 – and call a poll for April 12.

With all the swirling speculation, it’s no wonder that Anthony Albanese prefers four-year fixed terms for federal governments in Australia.

Gavin Clancy is a Senior Consultant with Lunik