US PRESIDENCY SWINGS ON POLL TURNOUT

Presidential campaigns swing on voter turnout

Gavin Clancy and Emily Minson

In a country like Australia, where voting is compulsory, it’s easy to overlook the factor of non-voter participation in larger democracies such as in the United States.

For more than 100 years, mandatory voting has operated in Australia. As a result, generally more than 90 per cent of the eligible (enrolled) population takes part in voting.

In the US, however, there’s some different challenges: first, getting people to register to vote, and then encouraging them to visit the ballot box before or on election day.

At the 2020 Presidential Election, according to the US Census Bureau, just under 73 per cent of all voting-age citizens were registered to vote; consequently, almost 67 per cent of all citizens aged 18 or older reported voting.

More than 168.3 million people were registered to vote, and more than 154.6 million voted; of the reported registrations, therefore, almost 92 per cent went on to vote.

For the purpose of US elections, only native-born or naturalised citizens aged 18 or older are eligible to vote.

Voter registration was up by two percentage points on 2016 figures, while the voter turnout was up by five percentage points on the previous Presidential race.

The 2020 contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump was also conducted during the Covid pandemic, posing an additional challenge to voter participation.

Sixty-eight per cent of women who were citizens aged 18 and over turned out to vote, compared to 65 per cent of men.

Ranked by age, 57 per cent of eligible voters aged 18-34 voted in 2020, rising to 69 per cent of those aged 35-64, and 74 per cent for voters aged 65 and above.

Those with a higher education were more likely to vote: four years ago, 80 per cent of people with a Bachelor’s degree or more voted in the Presidential Election.

Voting tendency also varies across racial background.

In 2020, 71 per cent of eligible non-Hispanic Whites turned out to vote (65 per cent in 2016), compared to 63 per cent of non-Hispanic Blacks (60 per cent). People of Hispanic origin registered a 54 per cent turnout (48 per cent in 2016).

The US has a highly diverse demography and geography across its 50 states, so it’s no surprise that voter turnout varies widely across the nation.

Presidential election campaigns focus heavily on the so-called swing states, with a strong emphasis on ensuring that eligible citizens in those states are registered to vote, and that they actually turn up to vote.

According to the US Census Bureau, in the last Presidential Election 84 per cent of citizens in the District of Columbia (Washington DC) turned out to vote, ahead of those in New Jersey (78.3 per cent).

By contrast, 54 per cent of citizens in Arkansas and 56.1 per cent of citizens in West Virginia turned out.

In the 2024 election, seven states have been targeted as swing states, where the winning margin for either Democrat or Republican candidate is expected to be tight: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

President Joe Biden took all states, except North Carolina, from Donald Trump in 2020.

At that election, voter turnout of citizens in the nominated swing states ranged from 61.5 per cent in Nevada to 73.6 per cent in Wisconsin.

Hence, a sizeable lift in voter turnout in battleground seats can make all the difference to the success of the Presidential campaign.

Or – unlike Australia – uninterested but registered voters can simply choose to stay home, and prefer to not vote for a candidate or candidates they don’t like.

Gavin Clancy is a Senior Consultant with Lunik in Melbourne; Emily Minson is the Co-Founder of Lunik and is based in San Francisco