US DEMOCRATS’ MID-TERM ELECTION TEST

US President Joe Biden personally won’t be facing the voters for two years, but in the meantime, he has another electoral test on his plate.

On November 8, US voters head to the ballot box for the mid-term elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate.

While the mid-term elections won’t threaten the President’s tenure, they will provide voter feedback on his legislative and policy agenda.

All 435 members of the US House of Representatives face re-election for a further two years, while 34 of the 100 US Senate seats are being contested.

For Australian voters, there will be some familiarity with the composition of the US House of Representatives and the Senate.

As in Australia, the US House comprises single-member constituencies while the Senate has an equal number of members – two – for each of the 50 states.

Like Australia, the most populous American states – think California and Texas – have the most House seats, but even the smallest states, such as Wyoming and Alaska, have two Senate seats, the same as the Golden State and the Lone Star State.

Unlike Australia, however, the members of the US Executive – the President and his or her Cabinet – do not sit in the US House of Representatives, or the Senate, for that matter.

Whereas Australian governments are formed in the House of Representatives, the Executive branch in the US does not rely on its numbers in the House, as Presidents are elected (and the Cabinet appointed) separately.

Hence, US Presidents can govern without their party holding a majority in either the House or the Senate. And even when the party of the President does hold a majority, there’s no guarantee that its members will vote along party lines.

In 2020, the Democrats completed the electoral trifecta, winning the Presidency, the House of Representatives, and most significantly, the US Senate.

In November, the Democrats will defend a slender 221-212 majority in the House (two seats are vacant), while in the Senate, the party will attempt to seize control beyond the current 50-50 seat split with the Republicans.

Of the 34 Senate seats up for grabs, Democrats hold 14 and the Republicans 20.

Over the last two years, the Democrats have effectively held the voting numbers in the Senate, as Vice-President Kamala Harris has the casting vote as a presiding officer.

The last two occasions a first-term Democrat President faced a mid-term election were not happy affairs for the party.

In 1994, during Bill Clinton’s first term, the Republicans recorded large swings to seize control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, forming a major block to the Democrats’ legislative program.

And in 2010, Barack Obama’s party suffered heavy losses in the House and Senate, losing control of the Lower House and only just retaining the Upper House.

President Joe Biden, therefore, will hope history does not repeat itself to the same degree.

Holding ground – and control – in the House and Senate on November 8 would represent a major fillip for the President’s re-election chances in 2024.

Heavy Democrat losses, however, would create a legislative roadblock, and embolden the Republican Party for its next electoral push for the White House.

Gavin Clancy is a Senior Consultant at Lunik